tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77540537921073574182024-03-05T08:19:51.478-08:00Where are the Clouds ?<b>A blog on the measurement and simulation of plumes and related atmospheric events</b>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-69201999300578685192011-12-28T14:49:00.000-08:002011-12-28T14:49:24.310-08:00Fukushima: 9 Months later<div style="text-align: justify;">
With regards to airborne radiation and ground measurement, here is <a href="http://rcwww.kek.jp/norm/">the reading at the NaI detector at KEK in Tsukuba</a> showing a steady decline over the past nine months. This was expected as the source became under control over time.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuEzjYLVzhyphenhypheny5P9XqS9OtXZrZNnIosaEbWgvqY-b9kvhbDkFM6THuYbaucfbn2cb1LfPolRpFO78h9kdM2KuYbNeZQ8gO3lBypv1L81iKvMCQrcMzex3QduS8KZeA8o2BqquG46alAKAeU/s1600/fukushima-9-months-later.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuEzjYLVzhyphenhypheny5P9XqS9OtXZrZNnIosaEbWgvqY-b9kvhbDkFM6THuYbaucfbn2cb1LfPolRpFO78h9kdM2KuYbNeZQ8gO3lBypv1L81iKvMCQrcMzex3QduS8KZeA8o2BqquG46alAKAeU/s400/fukushima-9-months-later.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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I note that the mapping situation has readily improved over the past few months: see for instance this ground measurement map at <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/nu/fukushima-np/f1/index-j.html">Fukushima Dai-Chi plant</a> and in <a href="http://www.naver.jp/radiation?type=fukushima">the region surrounding it</a> (via the<a href="http://jciv.iidj.net/map/"> Japan Radiation Map</a>)</div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-11391789341691487082011-05-26T01:27:00.000-07:002011-05-26T01:27:58.352-07:00Grímsvötn: Particulate measurements<div style="text-align: justify;">While <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/eurocontrol">@eurocontrol </a>has the latest on the airport closures (not likely) and flight cancellations, I was pointed to the <a href="http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Grimsvotn_status_2011-05-23_IES_IMO.pdf">Icelandic Meteorological Office and Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland for data on the plume source</a>: i.e. what type of volcano ashes are we facing: From <a href="http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Grimsvotn_status_2011-05-23_IES_IMO.pdf">the latest document</a>:</div><br />
<blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Tephra fallout: The amount of fallout is great from Vík in the west to the east of Öræfajökull. The amount of ash fall is the greatest close to the village Kirkjubæjarklaustur. Ash has been detected in several areas throughout the country, except in the northwest.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">A sample from Kirkjubæjarklaustur has been analyzed, which was taken around 1h on 22 May. The grains are glassy with micro crystals of plagioclase. Samples well sorted.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whole rock analysis: Basalt, with 50-51 Wt% SiO2 </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Leachate results: 5-10 mg/kg of waterdissolvable flour </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Grain size distribution: about 10% of the volume of the analyzed samples is finer than 10 micrometer</div></blockquote><br />
The Icelandic Met office is <a href="http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/2011/">here</a>. Updates on the conditions are <a href="http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2180">here</a>.<br />
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The London VAAC advisories are <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html">here</a>.Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-9471662398675374522011-05-22T05:24:00.000-07:002011-05-22T05:24:21.526-07:00Grímsvötn Ash Cloud<div style="text-align: justify;">And so it starts again, about a year after <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_April_2010_Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull_eruption">Eyjafjallajökull</a> The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gr%C3%ADmsv%C3%B6tn#2011_eruption">Grímsvötn volcano</a> in Iceland has started erupting and has yielded a large ash cloud. You can follow the situation on its <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gr%C3%ADmsv%C3%B6tn#2011_eruption">wikipedia page here</a>. As of this writing the <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/">London Volcanic Ash Advisory Center</a> in charge of evaluating the plume (in the UK) of this cloud does not seem to show that <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html">Europe might be affected before Tuesday</a>. The <a href="http://www.meteo.fr/vaac/archives/GRIMSVOTN/e.20110522111800.GRIMSVOTN.201135.201105221100.html">Toulouse VAAC</a> points back to the London VAAC for the moment.</div><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirOhjB9vC7pQWSNTpOXB9Z717gBHPY-GvmpXVeRdcoAGc5ZlDQI-Dsxh6G3WeYRlqp7bilC-1q1Q4AAMCeHIic74wCt9JlPCeQBN0XHaHeUnPJLXbbY_yDoKQ_kNvguWR0UpO5Aeoc2Xty/s1600/VAG_1306043199.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirOhjB9vC7pQWSNTpOXB9Z717gBHPY-GvmpXVeRdcoAGc5ZlDQI-Dsxh6G3WeYRlqp7bilC-1q1Q4AAMCeHIic74wCt9JlPCeQBN0XHaHeUnPJLXbbY_yDoKQ_kNvguWR0UpO5Aeoc2Xty/s320/VAG_1306043199.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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<div style="text-align: justify;">If you follow Twitter, you want to follow the account of <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/eurocontrol">Eurocontrol</a> or the following Ashtags: <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/search/%23Grimsvotn">#Grimsvotn</a>, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/search/%23ashcloud">#ashcloud</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/search/%23ashtag">#ashtag</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/search/%23iceland">#iceland</a></div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-49841603066462581082011-04-04T10:26:00.000-07:002011-04-04T10:26:07.001-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M forecasts for April 5thThe Texas A&M Forecasts are in and they are aiming westerly:<br />
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<div class="paragraph_style_1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;">Tuesday, April 5</div><ol style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; list-style-image: none; list-style-type: none; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-indent: 0px;"><li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110405T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110405T12Z.html">2011-04-05 12Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110405T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110405T06Z.html">2011-04-05 06Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110405T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110405T00Z.html">2011-04-05 00Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
</ol>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-62225559067580400482011-04-03T14:10:00.000-07:002011-04-03T14:10:57.372-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M forecasts, other simulations.The Texas A&M forecasts are in:<br />
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<blockquote>Monday, April 4<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110404T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110404T12Z.html">2011-04-04 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110404T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110404T06Z.html">2011-04-04 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110404T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110404T00Z.html">2011-04-04 00Z</a> - forecast only</blockquote><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; line-height: 20px;"><br />
</span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrGS2k0vziATHaCgOOTdmmCFOH5hwC2zCjMO_3UrgvVTJtt89el3KkAWqanJQ8xyc9yKsKBXYLH4pdSNh2wTT_J1J0PrApi4AphRSXcyb1Inh074mScrjrPtm7_cAziUJDjGqhiLmmvoGQ/s1600/display_all60min.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrGS2k0vziATHaCgOOTdmmCFOH5hwC2zCjMO_3UrgvVTJtt89el3KkAWqanJQ8xyc9yKsKBXYLH4pdSNh2wTT_J1J0PrApi4AphRSXcyb1Inh074mScrjrPtm7_cAziUJDjGqhiLmmvoGQ/s400/display_all60min.png" width="400" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; line-height: 20px;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I also found some readings from KEK in Tokyo, that are similar but more frequently updated than the SPEED! measurements. They are <a href="http://rcwww.kek.jp/norm/display_all60min.png">here</a> and <a href="http://rcwww.kek.jp/norm/">here</a>. As shown earlier, these measurements show several spikes stemming from the releases from the reactors and a larger set of bump starting around March 21st that seem to correlate with the pool cooling events. As soon as the pools are filled, i.e. cooled, the sources terms stops immediately.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">At the start of the accidents, there was not much data with regards to the source term at Fukushima, i.e how much elements were escaping from the reactors. Most of the computations performed by different groups were focused on a worst case scenario of <b><u>continuous release</u></b>, which was never supported by any of the SPEED! measurements. The simulations include:</div><br />
<ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://transport.nilu.no/products/fukushima">Special Forecast products for Fukushima produced by NILU-ATMOS</a> (disclaimer: These products are highly uncertain based on limited information for the source terms. Please use with caution and understand that the values are likely to change once we obtain more information on the overall nature of the accident. The products should be considered informational and only indicate 'worst case scenario' releases. From what we've learned recently, it seems releases of this magnitude have not yet occurred. Furthermore, these modeling products are based on global meteorological data, which are too coarse to provide reliable details of the transport of the plume across Japan.)</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.eurad.uni-koeln.de/">Eurad simulations.</a> (<a href="http://db.eurad.uni-koeln.de/prognose/radio.html">Fukushima site</a>) Disclaimer: This simulation is a so called "worst case scenario" with continuous release rate. The value of 0001 Bq / m 3 correspond to appr. one millionth of the concentration at the source. At distances more than appr. 2000 km away from the source, the concentrations are not harmful to health. The simulation starts at fictitious 15.03. 00 UTC and will continue to run in order to Demonstrate the InterContinental. Relaese exact transport When rates are published we will restart the simulation with reliable values.</li>
</ul><br />
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<div style="text-align: justify;">When given more data from the CTBTO, the german <a href="http://www.eurad.uni-koeln.de/">Eurad</a> model was re-run and the dispersion model was compared as to when CTBTO stations would detect the plume from the Fukushima plant. The animated gif is <a href="http://db.eurad.uni-koeln.de/prognose/data/alert/ra_animation.gif">here</a>.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTOfvAXVi2HmkWMygWSsJijsdOIn-gRBrcSCfi-sdblAGjiI6i1kzUaVZJ9F49G_KByEmc_ZIT3I2v9YMH0yZVQNe-QcPTMQZcI7rS59wruVTa6Es6Gzc-vkorNUrAEznnplWM6swNE6v0/s1600/ra_animation.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTOfvAXVi2HmkWMygWSsJijsdOIn-gRBrcSCfi-sdblAGjiI6i1kzUaVZJ9F49G_KByEmc_ZIT3I2v9YMH0yZVQNe-QcPTMQZcI7rS59wruVTa6Es6Gzc-vkorNUrAEznnplWM6swNE6v0/s400/ra_animation.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">and seems to show a pretty good fit with regards to when the stations would detect elements given the new simulations. Finally, an NOAA HYSPLIT model is currently being run by somebody which seems to give similar result with regards to particle trajectories. It is <a href="http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/news/fukushima?LANG=en&VAR=hysplit500">here</a>. </div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-57084557141903039662011-04-02T09:25:00.000-07:002011-04-02T11:06:26.172-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M Forecasts for April 3rdThe <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/April_2010.html">Texas A&M prediction maps for April 3rd</a> are in:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB_lB1lENjUPtj4Di5LHp6fvP_0PIWFWIITVPKUU8Y31cPISDW1mzeeQjq-DFwoeh21dnrvJu4LNE0CBBiG9Zdv-HoLRKupw9rdnEUVYiMQqK9R2J7vGZ9nOFupDoBO0tu3Kl606DOtnAW/s1600/20110403T12Z_region3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB_lB1lENjUPtj4Di5LHp6fvP_0PIWFWIITVPKUU8Y31cPISDW1mzeeQjq-DFwoeh21dnrvJu4LNE0CBBiG9Zdv-HoLRKupw9rdnEUVYiMQqK9R2J7vGZ9nOFupDoBO0tu3Kl606DOtnAW/s320/20110403T12Z_region3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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<blockquote><br />
Sunday, April 3<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110403T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110403T12Z.html">2011-04-03 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110403T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110403T06Z.html">2011-04-03 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110403T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110403T00Z.html">2011-04-03 00Z</a> - forecast only<br />
Saturday, April 2<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110402T18Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110402T18Z.html">2011-04-02 18Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110402T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110402T12Z.html">2011-04-02 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110402T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110402T06Z.html">2011-04-02 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110402T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110402T00Z.html">2011-04-02 00Z</a> - forecast only</blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">Looks there is a chance for some radiation monitoring station in Taiwan and South Korea to pick up similar radiation patterns as those detected by University of Washington and UC Berkeley (i.e. barely detectable, very low level). Cheryl Rofer has an entry on <a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/04/bits-and-pieces-april-1-2011.html">bits and pieces related to the Fukushima accident</a>. Of interest is the entry on <a href="http://www.marklynas.org/2011/03/the-dangers-of-nuclear-power-in-light-of-fukushima/">what we know with regards to radiation effect on people</a>.</div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-45667131098959939212011-04-01T05:52:00.000-07:002011-04-01T05:52:30.490-07:00Fukushima: Combining information from UC Berkeley, Texas A&M and TEPCO.There is a new report from <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1103.5954">UC Berkeley</a> that provides a timeline of the radiation measurements. The report is <a href="http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1103/1103.5954.pdf">here</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl6pK6Fpocz5rL7SEGU2J0Qr2SXe1FE3fiFeZqupr63S_aIPBL2jgzlXDKWQHIrWXxiTDi9MZ2jcJvwacwueJ8F3af9S6u0ykAolkESAW5zLOozdnWRbH2z5lAWqYXhJPNJhgWYYzwkgkj/s1600/timeline-ucberkley.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl6pK6Fpocz5rL7SEGU2J0Qr2SXe1FE3fiFeZqupr63S_aIPBL2jgzlXDKWQHIrWXxiTDi9MZ2jcJvwacwueJ8F3af9S6u0ykAolkESAW5zLOozdnWRbH2z5lAWqYXhJPNJhgWYYzwkgkj/s400/timeline-ucberkley.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Of interest today is the peak observed on March 24th (California time = GMT - 9). If one checks the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M maps</a>, it looks like there is a possibility to connect this peak to a source term around <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110320T00Z.html">March 20th at around midnight</a> (GMT) or a little <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110319T18Z.html">bit before</a>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKGw8fa6Tc_8Rl9KEYkjzAYwEgF7ONKpLOM-Da2xcTFup9n0y3q8UBwiqV9vwRYK_o3IyJZSK8ZA6yEBQ9cYHh_Xycqe9aA8hg6s-4b1DLmSK8c4SoZMh60mjuV3GErNfhcCw7NCUfq0B8/s1600/20110320T00Z_region4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKGw8fa6Tc_8Rl9KEYkjzAYwEgF7ONKpLOM-Da2xcTFup9n0y3q8UBwiqV9vwRYK_o3IyJZSK8ZA6yEBQ9cYHh_Xycqe9aA8hg6s-4b1DLmSK8c4SoZMh60mjuV3GErNfhcCw7NCUfq0B8/s400/20110320T00Z_region4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>The TEPCO press release for that time frame show <a href="http://www.blogger.com/At%20approximately%208:21%20am,%20March%2020th,%20water%20discharge%20to%20Unit%204%20by%20fire%20%20%20engine%20has%20started%20with%20the%20cooperation%20of%20Self-Defense%20Forces.">something new that day</a> among other things:<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<blockquote><b>Cooling of spent fuel pools</b> <u>At approximately 8:21 am, March 20th, water discharge to Unit 4 by fire </u><u>engine has started with the cooperation of Self-Defense Forces.</u></blockquote>Or because the graph shows counting performed for the whole day in California (as opposed to actual time period) another <a href="http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/2011/03/fukushima-ibakari-analysis-for-march.html">later event</a>:<br />
<br />
<br />
<blockquote style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><b>Cooling of Spent Fuel</b><b style="font-size: 13px;"> </b><u>From 3: 05 PM to 5: 20 PM on March 20th, 40 tons of seawater was </u><u>injected into Unit 2 by TEPCO employees.</u></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"></span><br />
<pre></pre><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">The finding seems consistent with any of two source terms occurring at </div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><ul><li>8:31 AM on March 20th, or about midnight March 20th (GMT) and,</li>
<li> 3:05PM/5:20PM on March 20th or about (6:00AM GMT March 20th).</li>
</ul><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> The detection in California has occurred around March 24th (PST) or about March 24th/March 25th (GMT). </div><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMEkEvzin8a6FAkQyi2zrnmaN_eI7bSCzcJlzxIbt0pwzO9J6fKvRiLb2b9iD0_09g7nE9Y39Q8li-T7Ae-1AALDlPio8Ju2TCSWWr8TFgnsT-JkhflKdw9z-zauG02spcO41OEV1TpU1B/s1600/20110320T06Z_region4+%25282%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMEkEvzin8a6FAkQyi2zrnmaN_eI7bSCzcJlzxIbt0pwzO9J6fKvRiLb2b9iD0_09g7nE9Y39Q8li-T7Ae-1AALDlPio8Ju2TCSWWr8TFgnsT-JkhflKdw9z-zauG02spcO41OEV1TpU1B/s400/20110320T06Z_region4+%25282%2529.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">Hence it becomes difficult to delineate which of the two source terms was effectively detected at Berkeley. Now let us watch the Tokyo measurements. it shows a start at about 8:00 am March 21st (JST)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrC8acfELrukHWa1cS8jQyNgvbS0ZyrrnsXaJWBD8x9PW-o5vFvuh1noMdshgufwiuqU3_ZHVekZRbSpuWsdXaeisWSN4q0U5mrObwivF5ARtcw7H_ASoWiQ3GQzkZZRAyQ1NA2VTYiqyW/s1600/tokyo_radiation+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrC8acfELrukHWa1cS8jQyNgvbS0ZyrrnsXaJWBD8x9PW-o5vFvuh1noMdshgufwiuqU3_ZHVekZRbSpuWsdXaeisWSN4q0U5mrObwivF5ARtcw7H_ASoWiQ3GQzkZZRAyQ1NA2VTYiqyW/s320/tokyo_radiation+%25281%2529.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">which seems consistent with reactor #4 pool cooldown. The second peak seems connected to the reactor #2 cooldown but it could also be connected to the <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11032105-e.html">smoke observed on top of unit 3</a> (March 21), however that would seem unlikely since according to TEPCO <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11032105-e.html">environmental readings remained at the same level</a> when the fumes occurred. Once the cooldown is obtained and stable, there is no expectation of further release to the environment. The expectation is now that the radiation measurements should continue decreasing (irrespective of whether the winds are westerly).</div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-3294775234209961132011-03-31T12:31:00.000-07:002011-03-31T12:35:33.471-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M Forecasts for April 1, A note on the Ibakari Analysis of March21st.The <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M forecasts are in:</a><br />
<div class="paragraph_style_1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><blockquote>Friday, April 1<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110401T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110401T12Z.html">2011-04-01 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110401T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110401T06Z.html">2011-04-01 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110401T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110401T00Z.html">2011-04-01 00Z</a> - forecast only<br />
Dates and times are shown in international format: YYYY-MM-DD HHZ. The Z indicates that the hours are given in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC or Greenwich time).<br />
Japan is 9 hours ahead of UTC. (00Z is 9:00 a.m. in Japan.)</blockquote></div><br />
In the <a href="http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/2011/03/fukushima-ibakari-analysis-for-march.html">Ibakari Analysis for the March 21st sudden dose rate increase</a>, David, a commenter, pointed out the following:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>That spike has been attributed to "rain" in sources that I've seen, for example in Daniel Garcia's graph here: <a href="http://twitpic.com/4f0qfr">http://twitpic.com/4f0qfr</a></blockquote>The graph no longer exists but it showed the dose rate increase with a mention of "rain" next to it. I responded with:<br />
<br />
<blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Thanks for the comment and info. Rain is just the final means by which the radioactive components eventually are deposited in some area ( on some sensors). What is important to understand is how this is transported. In this entry, I am trying to figure out what is the possible source term at the plant that could have triggered this increase in the dose rate. With the help of the Texas A&M computations showing the delayed transport between the plant and some other area, it looks plausible to have this event be the cooling of the spent fuel pool of reactor 2 being the culprit. The cooling must have produced evaporation that eventually fed into the plume. The Texas A&M computation seem to suggest that there is a good fit between the time this event happened and the time is was detected several hours later in Ibakari. If you have any other source of information, I would love to hear about them.</div></blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">Thanks David. I can see also the point that dose rate increase only when it rains because somehow the radiation is diffused all around as opposed to following specific trajectories such as the ones the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Main.html">Texas A&M team</a> is computing.. However, while rain <a href="http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;ws=33162">occurred in that area on March 21st</a> ( <a href="http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;ws=33162">http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;ws=33162</a> ), there has been other rain events since with no corresponding large dose rate increase.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiRmQuaQFiW3OMjGDwvgIuXkoeBQ15PxfEDrb5ANsqMZm1Z-HeQv5E3XKotF2skTIT5sqUm-WcfaTFM38tPacNqgiXw6CYeJRTnTCSEU-TAKYr6HYOsu5dQ1MW0-9NnV0djuW_f1Pl_4rX/s1600/ibakari.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiRmQuaQFiW3OMjGDwvgIuXkoeBQ15PxfEDrb5ANsqMZm1Z-HeQv5E3XKotF2skTIT5sqUm-WcfaTFM38tPacNqgiXw6CYeJRTnTCSEU-TAKYr6HYOsu5dQ1MW0-9NnV0djuW_f1Pl_4rX/s400/ibakari.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>As can be seen from the SPEED! and other prefecture measurements graph at <a href="http://fleep.com/earthquake/">http://fleep.com/earthquake/</a> .Here is the Ibakari graph:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxcrygR2DHOAPE0rFjX4AsyU01mzwDvTRRXOV3fBGYeHA5Zh3ZCedj6A0auEmomfv_EzBLCVX6mjc0XWtimH64rBbqlvy0IevVKUD_CKTi9skI-IWV0bnFLJ2QQDa5WfxmTHd0j0aKc6Dw/s1600/ibaraki_radiation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxcrygR2DHOAPE0rFjX4AsyU01mzwDvTRRXOV3fBGYeHA5Zh3ZCedj6A0auEmomfv_EzBLCVX6mjc0XWtimH64rBbqlvy0IevVKUD_CKTi9skI-IWV0bnFLJ2QQDa5WfxmTHd0j0aKc6Dw/s400/ibaraki_radiation.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In other words, the insertion of sea water in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4 on March 21st, <b>seems consistent</b> with the dose rate increase in Ibakari several hours later (please note that I am not saying it is the only reason, just that it seems consistent based on the incomplete data we have so far). In particular, the trajectory computations show the possibility of the particles born from the cooling of the fuel rods to be over Ibakari in the right time frame. The rain is probably a compounding element that enabled the 4 microSv/hr dose rate increase as detected by the prefecture measurements. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Dr. Matthias Braun from Areva produced a presentation, available from <a href="http://energyfromthorium.com/2011/03/30/areva-fd-presentation/">Energy from Thorium</a>, that provides a background to folks who do not know nuclear systems, All the information in that presentation stem from data gathered from different sources accessible over the internet. Of interest are the following two slides. The first one is a timeline that stops just before March 21st and the second shows how different the accident in the pool at reactor #4 is with regards to radiological release from similar release from reactor 1 through 3. As stated in the presentation, <b>we do not know if these releases have occurred already</b>.<u>Let us note that the presentation talks about pool #4 whereas the dose rate increase seems consistent with water thrown in pool #2.</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFKGGvI77UWS-9QxiyvaZOSKeIGgF_T6Eqz7m0A83eKMvip9M9aSVWFVoYKQ-6Z6UgspHVyq4Ng7m9JQVuEZJNt8p2_iBqCnfOQTJxyjace5nzU94sPLqqxhFb1SneeS06OIJPTs5t1bs_/s1600/timeline-braun.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFKGGvI77UWS-9QxiyvaZOSKeIGgF_T6Eqz7m0A83eKMvip9M9aSVWFVoYKQ-6Z6UgspHVyq4Ng7m9JQVuEZJNt8p2_iBqCnfOQTJxyjace5nzU94sPLqqxhFb1SneeS06OIJPTs5t1bs_/s320/timeline-braun.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpUyvm-hHjGAIItege5rMAh9kT_NNwWP2-eHsBu31EGXsnYBZg_t3aN6uh6C-5xqrDSnUtce3rDI5oTgwWr7kbG6NdxJ7401EQ9Z2BqLOlj-J5H9DsVXlrKp_pJ4ReLCySQzhceseZX5Y6/s1600/spf4.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpUyvm-hHjGAIItege5rMAh9kT_NNwWP2-eHsBu31EGXsnYBZg_t3aN6uh6C-5xqrDSnUtce3rDI5oTgwWr7kbG6NdxJ7401EQ9Z2BqLOlj-J5H9DsVXlrKp_pJ4ReLCySQzhceseZX5Y6/s400/spf4.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-81985930811345940752011-03-31T00:01:00.000-07:002011-03-31T00:01:00.342-07:00Fukushima: Ibakari Analysis for March 21st.I wanted to come back to an dose rate increase in Ibakari that occurred on March 21st at 10:00 am. From <a href="http://fleep.com/earthquake/">here</a>:<br />
<div><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn3PhtG602cekMrPpxKYgF7DOa_CbYAA06zgiqNpgqoZ68ABdosUUcGHOp_XOwYGYqoUEzU8Qap2RK3W_hBGjyhN05vjJc9ozR5-jywdmAq-ANjFdAxx-ok-gxbvQfFLlRVRJlyhNpSnRu/s1600/ibakari-March-21-increase.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn3PhtG602cekMrPpxKYgF7DOa_CbYAA06zgiqNpgqoZ68ABdosUUcGHOp_XOwYGYqoUEzU8Qap2RK3W_hBGjyhN05vjJc9ozR5-jywdmAq-ANjFdAxx-ok-gxbvQfFLlRVRJlyhNpSnRu/s400/ibakari-March-21-increase.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">According to the TEPCO <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11032009-e.html">press release on March 20th</a>, the only event I could find is the cooling of the spent fuel of reactor 2:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><blockquote><b>Cooling of Spent Fuel</b><u>From 3: 05 PM to 5: 20 PM on March 20th, 40 tons of seawater was </u><u>injected into Unit 2 by TEPCO employees.</u></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span></div><pre><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>
</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>
</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: small; white-space: normal;">The <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110320T06Z.html">Texas A&M maps show the trajectories at about that tine (3PM JST)</a></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>
</u></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_P5VpwGasLWjczjY57ymjKljZ5pFdenJxfoOIcDXA4BG4NE1wUhNuHLf1V8mUNtzDCZNBGDZnCphJhbLHjPnJkf6eJbzZFPEREEJSPUWsfUvrZeCCV9EeclHqh9PS3jFsuuD7_FNPjt5/s1600/20110320T06Z_region1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_P5VpwGasLWjczjY57ymjKljZ5pFdenJxfoOIcDXA4BG4NE1wUhNuHLf1V8mUNtzDCZNBGDZnCphJhbLHjPnJkf6eJbzZFPEREEJSPUWsfUvrZeCCV9EeclHqh9PS3jFsuuD7_FNPjt5/s400/20110320T06Z_region1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>
</u></div></pre><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">On the 22th, at <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110322T12Z.html">21:00 JST on March 22,</a> there is a drop, that coincides with a westerly wind. Then the dose rate goes up as the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110322T18Z.html">winds comes back to the Ibakari region</a>. So it looks like from the information currently available, the cooling of the pool in reactor 2 and attendant vapor generation might be responsible for this increase in dose rate in Ibakari.</div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-18162662379525487932011-03-30T13:22:00.000-07:002011-03-30T13:22:01.248-07:00Fukushima: TAMU Forecast March 31st, Analysis for IbakariThe <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M prediction maps for tomorrow are in</a>:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="paragraph_style_1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;">Thursday, March 31</div><ol style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; list-style-image: none; list-style-type: none; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-indent: 0px;"><li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110331T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110331T12Z.html">2011-03-31 12Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110331T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110331T06Z.html">2011-03-31 06Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110331T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110331T00Z.html">2011-03-31 00Z</a> - forecast only</div><div><br />
</div></li>
</ol>Please note that 06Z means 6:00 GMT or (6:00 + 9:00) 15:00 JST.<br />
<br />
Yesterday, the prediction showed some trajectories going in the direction of Ibakari. <a href="http://gebweb.net/japan-radiation-map/">Yesterday's map</a> of the region showed:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-FPXVlk7P7GZfp_N4sLHYkKx0vojceY9FuHPE544XWXfTnM6syhz0EiVLOM0gt_4QHhRp56SjccIUMMkSm57MlTdoKR7f7RB-weu1Zv_WN3Xpo2R55IxcHipea4Kf7TXU0xD8qoexKN6w/s1600/march29south-fukushima.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-FPXVlk7P7GZfp_N4sLHYkKx0vojceY9FuHPE544XWXfTnM6syhz0EiVLOM0gt_4QHhRp56SjccIUMMkSm57MlTdoKR7f7RB-weu1Zv_WN3Xpo2R55IxcHipea4Kf7TXU0xD8qoexKN6w/s400/march29south-fukushima.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div> Today's readings show the <a href="http://gebweb.net/japan-radiation-map/">following map</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7WMUKTQv_EWRcAklre3UbYi5kUBZsWr32HOO-Rvfx35sG3QD7a5dGrxC-b2bS4cueQYEEWmu7Qf-tyB85MvBR7-xHIlurH2QgwirA2lRAHHUkAVuYzyXnbVVtzNUm0pMcnpPFfZPSYjl/s1600/march30fukushima.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7WMUKTQv_EWRcAklre3UbYi5kUBZsWr32HOO-Rvfx35sG3QD7a5dGrxC-b2bS4cueQYEEWmu7Qf-tyB85MvBR7-xHIlurH2QgwirA2lRAHHUkAVuYzyXnbVVtzNUm0pMcnpPFfZPSYjl/s400/march30fukushima.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>At first, there is no obvious difference using the color coding of that map. The historical charts in the same region <a href="http://fleep.com/earthquake/">show the following trend</a>:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxNDKpJB0nl5BkZLYSSuQ1GpvWJgKmE460gIpPPJTBSk345miAzIv0pTbU97LR7bJAAFsqGxNZi8p607OnwBAi2HTzZWpimCiKwWLtGGK6SCuNvZhv5vuCjLj3rST14SQE-VC1gv224uqi/s1600/ibaraki_radiation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxNDKpJB0nl5BkZLYSSuQ1GpvWJgKmE460gIpPPJTBSk345miAzIv0pTbU97LR7bJAAFsqGxNZi8p607OnwBAi2HTzZWpimCiKwWLtGGK6SCuNvZhv5vuCjLj3rST14SQE-VC1gv224uqi/s400/ibaraki_radiation.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">or a tiny increase of less than 0.2 microSv/hr at Takahagi. The map from Texas A&M is the one dated <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110329T18Z.html">March 29th at 18 GMT or March 30 03:00 JST</a>:</div><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhPCFn-6X0cxLkaIYfKJ5x3BVk9h-CiCX222t96eznIzll78Uwpxj4dgMoKcm480IHh7SJMTRZN7u6fAdNbjlXBfTq-ocge0dj19F5QW1ojsQiQhp5RJ3P2kPwYh8y8J2y93pThiXWtQvM/s1600/20110329T18Z_region1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhPCFn-6X0cxLkaIYfKJ5x3BVk9h-CiCX222t96eznIzll78Uwpxj4dgMoKcm480IHh7SJMTRZN7u6fAdNbjlXBfTq-ocge0dj19F5QW1ojsQiQhp5RJ3P2kPwYh8y8J2y93pThiXWtQvM/s400/20110329T18Z_region1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-38644844372828424192011-03-29T07:20:00.000-07:002011-03-29T10:45:44.527-07:00Fukushima: TAMU Forecasts March 30th, Source term around the plant.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfmKrk2qcayqv4zhnHhVmS9isG6yH7R-ZBCwdUI5lXlCpOK0IGJpcIvKdB93x6fCPNzRJNvQGzBn9FXtNbZvW4qVt1nmAZxgj8nqPCAczNgyIsCqOR3yxoDbWK_cVKkMoe25S9lFW5BIuI/s1600/20110330T12Z_region1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfmKrk2qcayqv4zhnHhVmS9isG6yH7R-ZBCwdUI5lXlCpOK0IGJpcIvKdB93x6fCPNzRJNvQGzBn9FXtNbZvW4qVt1nmAZxgj8nqPCAczNgyIsCqOR3yxoDbWK_cVKkMoe25S9lFW5BIuI/s320/20110330T12Z_region1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>The <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M forecasts are in for tomorrow Wednesday March 30th</a>:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="paragraph_style_1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;">Wednesday, March 30</div><ol style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; list-style-image: none; list-style-type: none; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-indent: 0px;"><li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110330T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110330T12Z.html">2011-03-30 12Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110330T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110330T06Z.html">2011-03-30 06Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110330T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110330T00Z.html">2011-03-30 00Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
</ol><br />
<br />
Let us note that 06Z means 6:00 GMT or (6:00 + 9:00) 15:00 JST<br />
<br />
From the <a href="http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html">IAEA</a> press release:<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #575757; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', 'Lucida Sans', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10px;"></span><br />
<h3 style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: brown; font-family: Georgia, Times, sans-serif; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.111111em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident Update (28 March, 23:00 UTC)</span></h3><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Japan Confirms Plutonium in Soil Samples at Fukushima Daiichi.</strong>After taking soil samples at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, Japanese authorities today confirmed finding traces of plutonium that most likely resulted from the nuclear accident there. The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency told the IAEA that the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) had found concentrations of plutonium in two of five soil samples.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Traces of plutonium are not uncommon in soil because they were deposited worldwide during the atmospheric nuclear testing era. However, the isotopic composition of the plutonium found at Fukushima Daiichi suggests the material came from the reactor site, according to TEPCO officials. <u>Still, the quantity of plutonium found does not exceed background levels tracked by Japan's Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology over the past 30 years.</u></div></blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">It is important to realize that plutonium is already in the background in large part because of atomic weapons test performed in the 1950s and 1960s in the atmosphere. These tests released plumes of these materials in the atmosphere. The TEPCO/Fukushima anlysis shows specifically that these soil samples have elements of the reactors as the composition of fissile material is different from the atmospheric tests of the 50-60s. From <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium"> wikipedia</a>, here is historical account on the truely known toxicity of Plutonium:</div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20px;"></span><br />
<blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">....Several populations of people who have been exposed to plutonium dust (e.g. people living down-wind of Nevada test sites, Hiroshima survivors, nuclear facility workers, and "terminally ill" patients injected with Pu in 1945–46 to study Pu metabolism) have been carefully followed and analyzed.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">These studies generally do not show especially high plutonium toxicity or plutonium-induced cancer results.<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-CohenMyth_97-2" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1em;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium#cite_note-CohenMyth-97" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #0645ad; text-decoration: none; white-space: nowrap;">[88]</a></sup> "There were about 25 workers from Los Alamos National Laboratory who inhaled a considerable amount of plutonium dust during the 1940's; according to the hot-particle theory, each of them has a 99.5% chance of being dead from lung cancer by now, but there has not been a single lung cancer among them."<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-103" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1em;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium#cite_note-103" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #0645ad; text-decoration: none; white-space: nowrap;">[94]</a></sup><sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-104" style="font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1em;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium#cite_note-104" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #0645ad; text-decoration: none; white-space: nowrap;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; color: #0645ad; text-decoration: none; white-space: nowrap;">[</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #0645ad;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-origin: initial; white-space: nowrap;">95</span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; color: #0645ad; text-decoration: none; white-space: nowrap;">]</span></a>...</sup></div></blockquote>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-55436211180805409422011-03-28T09:55:00.000-07:002011-03-28T13:46:56.428-07:00Fukushima: TAMU Forecasts Tuesday March 29, a note on the TAMU model, Microsievert.netTexas A&M Forecasts and <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Status/Entries/2011/3/28_Update_for_Monday%2C_March_28.html">status updates</a> are in;<br />
<br />
<div class="paragraph_style_1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: small; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"></span><br />
<div class="paragraph_style_1" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;">Tuesday, March 29</div><ol style="list-style-image: none; list-style-type: none; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-indent: 0px;"><li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110329T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110329T12Z.html">2011-03-29 12Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110329T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110329T06Z.html">2011-03-29 06Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
<li class="full-width" style="line-height: 20px; padding-left: 16px; text-indent: 0px;"><div class="paragraph_style_2" style="color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110329T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110329T00Z.html">2011-03-29 00Z</a> - forecast only</div></li>
</ol></div><br />
I have had a small exchange with <a href="http://atmo.tamu.edu/profile/KBowman">Dr. Ken Bowman</a> on the model used for these simulations:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Dear Igor,<br />
<br />
... I finally found a little time to look at your blog. I like the way that you are bringing things together.<br />
<br />
The model that I am running is good for giving a general idea of where a release might go on the large scale. The resolution of the global winds is about 50 km. At that resolution, the model does a poor job of representing the mountainous topography of Japan. My maps should not be called an 'aerosol simulation', as they have no aerosol physics in them, just passive advection by the winds....</blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Thanks Ken.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Finally, <a href="http://microsioevert.net/">microsioevert.net</a> is a new site featuring a different kind of vizualisation than we have been accustomed to,</div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-9803504785910320962011-03-27T15:15:00.000-07:002011-03-27T15:15:51.979-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M Forecasts Mon March 28, Plume detection in France and other countries, Radiation Measurements and StandardsThe <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M forecasts are in</a>:<br />
<blockquote>Monday, March 28<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110328T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110328T12Z.html">2011-03-28 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110328T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110328T06Z.html">2011-03-28 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110328T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110328T00Z.html">2011-03-28 00Z</a> - forecast only</blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">And it looks like the winds are going westerly. In other news, the French Teleray radiation sensor network has detected the plume in metropolitan France. All measurements show that the plume is in the background. The following graph show radiation level average over a month and radiation level for the plume:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQSLo4YjyjdkAv6jeu1vBJcyhYAT1UIp9fvc6KaRQ2f8DVb74UYWVJb_1KtXWw0Qgx_KxfY3EySn3GcmnqdssRZ_Tx5tJe0h1ZMFEpbEBYp3fiUCHbZaWwSwJ8elzepTS_CVFCmD16kTIv/s1600/teleray.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQSLo4YjyjdkAv6jeu1vBJcyhYAT1UIp9fvc6KaRQ2f8DVb74UYWVJb_1KtXWw0Qgx_KxfY3EySn3GcmnqdssRZ_Tx5tJe0h1ZMFEpbEBYp3fiUCHbZaWwSwJ8elzepTS_CVFCmD16kTIv/s400/teleray.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Of interest is a summary of what was found in other countries:</div><br />
<blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Measurement results were published in the United States by the protection agency(EPA - <a href="http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/">http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/</a>). They show small traces of radioactive products released during the Fukushima accident, were detected on filters as atmospheric dust samples in California (San Francisco, Riverside, Anaheim) and in the state of Washington (Seattle) on the west coast. Radionuclides are identified 131, tellurium 132, iodine 132 and cesium 137. Concentrations measured on March 18 for those elements are a few tenths of a mBq / m3 or lower. In Scandinavia, iodine 131 was measured in air in Stockholm, Umeå and Kiruna (Sweden) at a concentration of less than 0.30 mBq / m3, in Finland (less than 1 mBq / m3), Germany (0.33 mBq / m3 for all artificial radionuclides detected) for samples performed between 22 and 23 March. In the Netherlands, iodine was also detected in air: a concentration of 0.17 mBq / m3. These results are consistent, in terms of date and order of magnitude, with forecasts performed by Météo France at the global level, in collaboration with IRSN. They confirm particularly in Europe, the dispersed radioactive elements came from the north, as provided for the modeling of Météo France.</div></blockquote>The press releases are here: number <a href="http://www.irsn.fr/FR/Actualites_presse/Actualites/Documents/IRSN_Bulletin3_Bilan-surveillance-environnement-France_26032011.pdf">3</a> and <a href="http://www.irsn.fr/FR/Actualites_presse/Actualites/Documents/IRSN_Bulletin4_Bilan-surveillance-environnement-France_27032011.pdf">4</a>.<br />
<br />
Chreyl Rofer has two blog entries of interest with regards to radiation measurements and exposure.<br />
<br />
<ul><li><a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/radiation-measurements-gone-wrong.html">Radiation Measurements Gone Wrong</a></li>
<li><a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/radiation-exposure-standards-making.html">Radiation Exposure Standards – Making Hard Judgements</a></li>
</ul>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-18048302585450244132011-03-26T15:12:00.000-07:002011-03-26T15:12:44.744-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M Forecasts Sun March 27, Air Share, Comments on Source TermThe <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M predictions</a> just came out:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Sunday, March 27<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110327T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110327T12Z.html">2011-03-27 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110327T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110327T06Z.html">2011-03-27 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110327T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110327T00Z.html">2011-03-27 00Z</a> - forecast only</blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">The <a href="http://googlemapsmania.blogspot.com/2011/03/japanese-air-flows-on-google-maps.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GoogleMapsMania+%28Google+Maps+Mania%29">Google Maps Mania</a> blog pointed out to another instance of trajectory computation called <a href="http://japan.sharedair.org/">Shared Air</a> by the folks at University of Michigan. In these maps, you choose a city in Japan and figure out if the winds and particle came from Fukushima. It really is the reverse problem that the Texas A&M computations do.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhItjsKQBjDytptnX-qcsS9V6RgzGYKjrXW5fgSqNrerwxkbexDa1Dv72n_Mr5xD2ZACxQPKi2YkQVuZoIuvRXsMI2BZYc2EA4CgeXAHbJ6hkqE4b9B_HV4sd_UL1hYR-wzRPboCxLBw9vy/s1600/mapsmania.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhItjsKQBjDytptnX-qcsS9V6RgzGYKjrXW5fgSqNrerwxkbexDa1Dv72n_Mr5xD2ZACxQPKi2YkQVuZoIuvRXsMI2BZYc2EA4CgeXAHbJ6hkqE4b9B_HV4sd_UL1hYR-wzRPboCxLBw9vy/s400/mapsmania.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
<a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/">Cheryl Rofer</a> has a series of blog entries of interest to plume:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/is-there-leak-at-fukushima-3.html">Is There a Leak at Fukushima #3?</a><br />
<a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/and-nowbecquerels.html">And Now...Becquerels!</a><br />
<a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/if-youre-in-us-dont-take-potassium.html">If You're Anywhere But Japan, Don't Take Potassium Iodide!</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://blogs.knoxnews.com/munger/">Frank Munger</a> mentions the fact that <a href="http://blogs.knoxnews.com/munger/2011/03/ornl-simulating-nuclear-events.html">Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) is providing computational suport to DOE on the modeling of what is currently going on in each of the reactors and pools</a>.Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-6643154744014229872011-03-25T17:44:00.000-07:002011-03-26T10:52:26.029-07:00Fukushima: Source Term Analysis in Seattle. Potential understanding of Unit 3 fumes.[<b>Update</b>: The folks at the Unversity of Washington are now aware of this opportunity]<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">The <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26571/">arxiv blog</a> just featured a paper that appeared on arxiv that points to an analysis of the plume that landed at the University of Washington in Seattle. The paper is at the end of this entry. A good summary is <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26571/">here</a>, from the text:</div><blockquote>Finally, there are a huge number of possible breakdown products from nuclear fission in a reactor and yet the Seattle team found evidence of only three fission product elements--iodine, cesium and tellurium. "This points to a specifific process of release into the atmosphere," they say.<br />
<br />
Cesium Iodide is highly soluble in water. So these guys speculate that what they're seeing is the result of contaminated steam being released into the atmosphere. "Chernobyl debris, conversely, showed a much broader spectrum of elements, reflecting the direct dispersal of active fuel elements," they say.</blockquote><br />
If one checks the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M predictions</a>, arrival in Seattle on March 17-18 can be assumed <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110313T12Z.html">thanks to this map</a> that assumes ejection around 12 GMT on March 13th (or 21 JST March 13th)<br />
<br />
<br />
<center><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXHWjWPwzUEwsQfzAEH2PvdDvA9L3dbGZ7Ul60x_B94Uglas9q5TZN709bG7hVyLQINFWoBUZXT96LLW1oUr7Oc5QxfdFPNDRbIY2u6HhV8zLP8RA4UiIu2EX_85rMyAoPAcx5-YGqcmVb/s1600/seattle.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXHWjWPwzUEwsQfzAEH2PvdDvA9L3dbGZ7Ul60x_B94Uglas9q5TZN709bG7hVyLQINFWoBUZXT96LLW1oUr7Oc5QxfdFPNDRbIY2u6HhV8zLP8RA4UiIu2EX_85rMyAoPAcx5-YGqcmVb/s320/seattle.JPG" width="320" /></a></div></center><br />
<br />
This would correspond to an event in Unit 3 according to <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBd3haKc2uXiFovEe5Uz2UmRonDSzPdhOOWXXWuyZUP9URmzRu088WOK9qetPiOOOWeZxy0wLs76otQqzY_GQZ6BQNkAIAQ7NnaUHmsTnjJoxV8Iu9UflPgdNE7P5xm2QaUTa7JXbmuz4/s1600/fukushima_map2.png">this map</a>.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">The folks at University of Washington ought to be looking at the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M simulations</a> to see if and when they are going to catch up elements of the plumes.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Unit 3 is still a concern today as an analysis of the water outside of the secondary containment has shown elements such as Technetium-99m (Thanks <a href="http://david.monniaux.free.fr/dotclear/index.php/post/2011/03/25/Fuite-%C3%A0-Fukushima-I%2C-r%C3%A9acteur-3">David</a>).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">To see if the plume contains some of these elements, we ought to be looking at the smoke that left unit 3. As per <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11032515-e.html">TEPCO's report</a>:</div><br />
<blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">At approximately <b>4:00 pm, March 21st, light gray smoke</b> was confirmed arising from the floor roof of the Unit 3 building. On March 22nd, the color of smoke changed to somewhat white and it is slowly dissipating.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">-At approximately 10:45 pm on March 22nd, the light in the main control room was turned on.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">-At around <b>4:20 pm on March 23rd, our staff confirmed light black smoke</b> belching from the Unit 3 building. At approximately 11:30 pm on March 23rd and 4:50 am on March 24th, our employee found no signs of smoke.</div></blockquote><br />
If one converts these dates from JST to GMT, we have:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>7:00 am GMT March 21st: light gray smoke<br />
7:20 am March 23rd: light black smoke</blockquote><br />
A simulation for the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110320T06Z.html">March 21st event was performed for 6:00 am and it shows that plume hitting Seattle <b>tomorrow</b></a>. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcGRJnCZ-LqtK-KESq9A4D9A3sZkB5X2-1mX5WNv8YPTtc-g4qvk2h2vk3FbBdhyphenhyphenmDZaxMRYhacifVmVQnNjtMVavDMlAD0MzSB32prTH9TWnxkco2KQw0DMjTan76tVX9ribm4HkWREXW/s1600/20110320T06Z_region4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcGRJnCZ-LqtK-KESq9A4D9A3sZkB5X2-1mX5WNv8YPTtc-g4qvk2h2vk3FbBdhyphenhyphenmDZaxMRYhacifVmVQnNjtMVavDMlAD0MzSB32prTH9TWnxkco2KQw0DMjTan76tVX9ribm4HkWREXW/s320/20110320T06Z_region4.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
A simulation for the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110323T06Z.html">second event does not seem as conclusive</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
The paper: <a href="http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1103/1103.4853v1.pdf">Arrival time and magnitude of airborne fission products from the Fukushima, Japan, reactor incident as measured in Seattle, WA, USA</a> by J. Diaz Leon,<a href="http://www.phys.washington.edu/research.php"> J. Kaspar</a>, <a href="http://www.phys.washington.edu/research.php">A. Knecht</a>, <a href="http://www.phys.washington.edu/research.php">M. L. Miller</a>, <a href="http://faculty.washington.edu/rghr/index.htm">R. G. H. Robertson</a>, A. G. Schubert. The abstract reads:<br />
<blockquote>We report results of air monitoring started due to the recent natural catastrophe on March 11, 2011 in Japan and the severe ensuing damage to the Fukushima nuclear reactor complex. On March 17-18, 2011 we detected the first arrival of the airborne fission products 131-I, 132-I, 132-Te, 134-Cs, and 137-Cs in Seattle, WA, USA, by identifying their characteristic gamma rays using a germanium detector. The highest detected activity to date is less than 32 mBq/m^3 of 131-I.</blockquote>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-73779287462381652022011-03-25T10:57:00.000-07:002011-03-25T10:57:23.049-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M Forecasts Sat March 25, A Challenge ?, Other assessments and radiation monitoring networks<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyvA3KlNBuw9BSUfQllTAFJFhYOQZkIblDbzOoCwPsyTORoaSLE3YdL4FYYq-Pkyqvqn1iVwfnT0ikkRsY5px0m4SbEX292NiRWFyKLVfpbkxwyz5cS_iptbrlHOVzj4ULJ7qXwEnhoey/s1600/20110326T12Z_region1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyvA3KlNBuw9BSUfQllTAFJFhYOQZkIblDbzOoCwPsyTORoaSLE3YdL4FYYq-Pkyqvqn1iVwfnT0ikkRsY5px0m4SbEX292NiRWFyKLVfpbkxwyz5cS_iptbrlHOVzj4ULJ7qXwEnhoey/s320/20110326T12Z_region1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Main.html">Texas A&M forecasts</a> are in for tomorrow:</div><blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Saturday, March 26</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110326T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110326T12Z.html">2011-03-26 12Z</a> - forecast only</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110326T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110326T06Z.html">2011-03-26 06Z</a> - forecast only</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110326T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110326T00Z.html">2011-03-26 00Z</a> - forecast only</div></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">If the trend is correct, the plume is likely to be conveyed away from Japanese land for tomorrow. It also shows the plume aiming for the Philippines. If the plume is the same as it has been for the past week as it spread to the US, it will not yield appreciable dose. <a href="http://atmo.tamu.edu/profile/KBowman">Ken Bowman</a>, the initiator of the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Main.html">Texas A&M simulations</a> let me know that I should not use the term aerosol simulation for <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">his simulations</a> "<i>as they have no aerosol physics in them, just passive advection by the winds.</i>". Thanks <a href="http://atmo.tamu.edu/profile/KBowman">Ken</a> for the correction.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">I am wondering if we should not have some type of challenge that would ask people to show side by side how simulations and sensor networks measurements could be compared. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The DOE site about the situation in Japan is <a href="http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan/">here</a>. While they have provided data on the ground <a href="http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/2011/03/fukushima-us-department-of-energy.html">from their assessment team</a>, I have not seen any result from plume simulations from <a href="https://narac.llnl.gov/">their center at Livermore</a>. Of interest is the mention in USA Today of an assessment performed by some <a href="http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2011/03/federal-officials-release-japanese-radiation-measures-/1">IAEA/Japan team around Fukushima</a>. I am not sure I have seen these results on the web.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Steve at the NeutronEconomy blog <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/03/recent-presentations-on-events-at.html">features a series of videos related to the events at Fukushima</a>. <a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/blogging-at-bmj-blogs.html">Cheryl Rofer writes in the British Medical Journal blog</a>.</div><br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">In the meantime, I have come across two country-wide maps of interest for generic radiation sensor network monitoring who are seemingly not affected by the Fukushima plume.</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.irsn.fr/FR/Documents/france.htm">France</a> (in particular <a href="http://www.mesure-radioactivite.fr/public/spip.php?page=carte">this map</a> seems to feature 432,118 measurements)</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://odlinfo.bfs.de/">Germany</a></li>
</ul>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-9139825408807518692011-03-24T11:19:00.000-07:002011-03-26T07:03:26.061-07:00Fukushima: Timelines, the Fog of Data, Comparing the DOE data and Texas A&M's simulations, Forecasts<div style="text-align: justify;">The <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/">Neutroneconomy blog</a> has an <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/03/update-on-dose-readings-in-japan.html">update on Dose Readings in Japan</a>.and provides some analysis of the plumes and their detection. Also via <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/">the Neutroneconomy blog</a>, <a href="http://www.rchoetzlein.com/theory/?p=171">R.C Hoetzlein</a> provides a very nice timeline.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBd3haKc2uXiFovEe5Uz2UmRonDSzPdhOOWXXWuyZUP9URmzRu088WOK9qetPiOOOWeZxy0wLs76otQqzY_GQZ6BQNkAIAQ7NnaUHmsTnjJoxV8Iu9UflPgdNE7P5xm2QaUTa7JXbmuz4/s1600/fukushima_map2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBd3haKc2uXiFovEe5Uz2UmRonDSzPdhOOWXXWuyZUP9URmzRu088WOK9qetPiOOOWeZxy0wLs76otQqzY_GQZ6BQNkAIAQ7NnaUHmsTnjJoxV8Iu9UflPgdNE7P5xm2QaUTa7JXbmuz4/s400/fukushima_map2.png" width="400" /></a></div>There is another one on the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/world/asia/20110316-japan-quake-radiation.html?ref=asia">NYT</a>.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">Having a good timeline should allow us to make a better comparison with the Texas A&M simulations and readings on the ground. To the untrained eye it looks like there is only one set of sensors. However, the fog of data is fed from are several sensor networks. There are:</div><ul><li>The <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=210898383785586520377.00049ec135b71c4bf92cd&ll=37.335224,138.383789&spn=10.92701,45&t=h&z=5">MEXT</a> ( <a href="http://www.sendung.de/japan-radiation-open-data/">SPEED! network</a> ) via <a href="http://www.sendung.de/">Marian Steinbach</a>'s effort on the Japan Radiation OpenData</li>
<li><a href="http://geigercrowd.net/">Geiger Crowd network</a> (<a href="http://geigercrowd.net/how.html">contribute data and software here</a>)</li>
<li>Local prefecture networks as featured in this <a href="http://fleep.com/earthquake/">site</a>.( Radiation Levels for Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama, Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Yamagata, Miyagi, Iwate )</li>
<li><a href="http://www.rdtn.org/">RDTN.ORG</a>, uses SPPED! data and other networks</li>
<li><a href="http://radiation.crowdmap.com/">Radiation Crowd Map</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/nu/f1-np/press_f1/2010/2010-j.html">TEPCO readings</a> (Thanks <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/03/update-on-dose-readings-in-japan.html">NeutronEconomy</a>) only in Japanese it seems.</li>
<li>Citizen centered networks linked to the internet through entities like <a href="http://www.pachube.com/">Pachube</a> (<a href="http://www.pachube.com/feeds?q=radiation+japan+webscrape">Pachube also get information from the SPEED! network</a> thanks to <a href="http://www.sendung.de/">Marian Steinbach</a>'s effort). This last network has issue on its own when it comes to getting peoples's sensors to the network. It includes the need for getting <a href="http://hackaday.com/2011/03/23/geiger-counter-ad-conversion-for-radiation-level-crowdsourcing/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+hackaday%2FLgoM+%28Hack+a+Day%29">digital information from analog Geiger counters</a>.</li>
</ul>Beside the atmospheric ground measurements, there are also <a href="http://www.mext.go.jp/a_menu/saigaijohou/syousai/1303956.htm">tap water measurements</a> (see <a href="http://atmc.jp/water/">graphs</a>).<br />
<br />
We have updated a google maps featuring the MEXT data and some other data we mentioned in the blog before:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<center><br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&source=embed&msa=0&msid=210898383785586520377.00049ec135b71c4bf92cd&ll=34.737112,134.588013&spn=16.631444,13.52417&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small>View <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&source=embed&msa=0&msid=210898383785586520377.00049ec135b71c4bf92cd&ll=34.737112,134.588013&spn=16.631444,13.52417" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">Fukushima Plume (Sensors and Measurements)</a> in a larger map</small><br />
</center><br />
<br />
The Radiation data from the SPEED! network can also be found on this <a href="http://gebweb.net/japan-radiation-map/">map</a>.<br />
<br />
With regards to the source term, the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, <a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/reading-fukushima-status-reports.html">Cheryl Rofer has a take on the white smoke coming out of the plant:</a><br />
<blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">The puffs of smoke that have caused temporary evacuations of the control rooms have not been accompanied by increases in radiation. A gray or black color could indicate a fire, while white “smoke” is more likely steam.</span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">From the FEPC reports, the spent fuel pools at Units 2, 5, and 6 are at acceptable temperatures. Water is being added to the pools at Units 3 and 4, but no temperature is given. The reactor cores in Units 1, 2, and 3 remain partially uncovered by water, but the fact that their containment is holding pressure suggests that there are no large breaches.<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"> </span></span></div></blockquote><a href="http://www.sendung.de/">Marian Steinbach</a> has started putting the readings she obtained from the SPEED! network into a small video. This is outstanding. If we could include all the data from all the sensor networks and have a similar video from the plumes, I am sure we could begin to infer something<br />
<br />
Here is the SPEEDI Radiation Data Animation - Draft (Mar 20, 00:00 to Mar 23, 15:20 UTC)<br />
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<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<center><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/NbcWF4PGW98" title="YouTube video player" width="480"></iframe></center><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">As I was looking at the trajectory computations by the fine folks at Texas A&M and the aerial assessment provided by DOE yesterday, I am in need of an explanation: Namely, if you look at the <a href="http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/2011/03/fukushima-us-department-of-energy.html">DOE measurements</a>, there is red corridor going up on the left of Fukushima Dai-ichi:</div><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjLlG0RxNCymFkfHQK_4VoKaETKOstPgqTIA9QBSnSOHbnIAtZKwyJ1nKTI0U0DeAWLbRd82p0ymdXwe_DLQqxOC2s0KbF9eDv_4QzNm71f-D6capZMLo1o3PPnhlyLN0qe6NT6xdvgCdR/s1600/radiological-assessment.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjLlG0RxNCymFkfHQK_4VoKaETKOstPgqTIA9QBSnSOHbnIAtZKwyJ1nKTI0U0DeAWLbRd82p0ymdXwe_DLQqxOC2s0KbF9eDv_4QzNm71f-D6capZMLo1o3PPnhlyLN0qe6NT6xdvgCdR/s320/radiological-assessment.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<br />
yet when one check the Texas A&M simulations, only a period of potentially six hours provided this region to the exposure to the plume.namely:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTAInzlkUf-V8zo648hnZmmNd7ijk-CHift-YWvuNgv8aQksSKkiWBjThgD2lhPhvthyW65OozKmSy7wg-sINpYwuawar31s9mSyViiFfoZVaftpQ4oXOY-4y34qKmGzpMOLskNqABcMYv/s1600/20110319T00Z_region1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTAInzlkUf-V8zo648hnZmmNd7ijk-CHift-YWvuNgv8aQksSKkiWBjThgD2lhPhvthyW65OozKmSy7wg-sINpYwuawar31s9mSyViiFfoZVaftpQ4oXOY-4y34qKmGzpMOLskNqABcMYv/s320/20110319T00Z_region1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
The three days worth of simulation by Texas A&M and covered by the DOE survey are:<br />
<div class="paragraph_style_1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;"><blockquote>Saturday, March 19<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110319T18Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110319T18Z.html">2011-03-19 18Z</a> - analysis + forecast<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110319T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110319T12Z.html">2011-03-19 12Z</a> - analysis + forecast<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110319T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110319T06Z.html">2011-03-19 06Z</a> - analysis + forecast<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110319T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110319T00Z.html">2011-03-19 00Z</a> - analysis + forecast<br />
Friday, March 18<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110318T18Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110318T18Z.html">2011-03-18 18Z</a> - analysis + forecast<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110318T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110318T12Z.html">2011-03-18 12Z</a> - analysis + forecast<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110318T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110318T06Z.html">2011-03-18 06Z</a> - analysis + forecast<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110318T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110318T00Z.html">2011-03-18 00Z</a> - analysis only<br />
Thursday, March 17<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110317T18Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110317T18Z.html">2011-03-17 18Z</a> - analysis only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110317T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110317T12Z.html">2011-03-17 12Z</a> - analysis only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110317T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110317T06Z.html">2011-03-17 06Z</a> - analysis only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110317T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110317T00Z.html">2011-03-17 00Z</a> - analysis only</blockquote></div><br />
Finally, here are the new <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M forecast for today and tomorrow (times are in GMT).</a><br />
<blockquote><br />
Friday, March 25<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110325T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110325T12Z.html">2011-03-25 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110325T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110325T06Z.html">2011-03-25 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110325T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110325T00Z.html">2011-03-25 00Z</a> - forecast only<br />
Thursday, March 24<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110324T18Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110324T18Z.html">2011-03-24 18Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110324T12Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110324T12Z.html">2011-03-24 12Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110324T06Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110324T06Z.html">2011-03-24 06Z</a> - forecast only<br />
<span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110324T00Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110324T00Z.html">2011-03-24 00Z</a> - forecast only</blockquote>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-72028118163626473972011-03-23T06:46:00.000-07:002011-03-23T09:42:13.759-07:00Fukushima: U.S. Department of Energy Aerial and Ground Monitoring Data<div style="text-align: justify;">The U.S Department of Energy <a href="http://energy.gov/news/10194.htm">just issued a press release</a> and a presentation that featured aerial and ground measurement data. In the presentation there is also a mention of a ground US monitoring station deployed by their Consequence Management Response Teams near Fukushima. (<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #262626; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://energy.gov/news/documents/AMS_Data_for_USDoS__March22_1530_JLC.pptx" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #007cac; font-size: 12px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_self">Download the presentation here)</a></span></div><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqmmHyEIETX1Beuz5zUoc8JGD8woEXlScACFyj9NEAwUJkBbBfXGg5theIraVRuZMv5c0aKEYxBExcnRwp3zNU-DkjiB_j1cLjXFdpa6o7GjzZvrf1BpU-UUDR8y9ZzmmLigkP6LvPe89A/s1600/fukushima-area-nnsa-doe.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqmmHyEIETX1Beuz5zUoc8JGD8woEXlScACFyj9NEAwUJkBbBfXGg5theIraVRuZMv5c0aKEYxBExcnRwp3zNU-DkjiB_j1cLjXFdpa6o7GjzZvrf1BpU-UUDR8y9ZzmmLigkP6LvPe89A/s400/fukushima-area-nnsa-doe.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYbSyawm4-FbqIIX-Yoc6LHUP7y57QpWvsMssWhmcF1TqwskHbAFNYJVX0pGpQwE6QAWimL8kcowZp7C_gNwKKUIjd9TPD8H8RhbDyang1E6W6Jleopp6Xs8HIlz14yt0F56KNLYNfRG24/s1600/radiological-assessment.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYbSyawm4-FbqIIX-Yoc6LHUP7y57QpWvsMssWhmcF1TqwskHbAFNYJVX0pGpQwE6QAWimL8kcowZp7C_gNwKKUIjd9TPD8H8RhbDyang1E6W6Jleopp6Xs8HIlz14yt0F56KNLYNfRG24/s400/radiological-assessment.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-41965161307534848122011-03-23T06:44:00.000-07:002011-03-23T06:52:55.222-07:00Fukushima: Levels of radioactive iodine and cesium in tap waterThe Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology (MEXT), which has published charts we already referenced here (they are now available from <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&source=embed&msa=0&msid=210898383785586520377.00049ec135b71c4bf92cd&ll=34.597042,138.735352&spn=32.675463,40.473633&z=5">our map</a>) of the levels of radiation measured in all prefectures, also published charts of the levels of radioactive iodine 131 and cesium 137 measured in tap water.<br /><br />Those charts are <a href="http://atmc.jp/water/">gathered on this page</a> (link to the source is available).Zaviehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05764109477824249096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-69109257847759232862011-03-22T17:21:00.000-07:002011-03-26T02:19:09.677-07:00Fukushima: Texas A&M simulation vs ground measurements<div style="text-align: justify;">One of the "raison d'etre" of this blog is to compare ground measurements from government or citizen sensor networks and the diverse computational simulations used to model man made or natural plumes. While the French ISRN has performed some computations, its own sensor network is likely to not going to be able to pick up the radiation as it is likely to be in the background when it reaches metropolitan France. At Texas A&M, <a href="http://atmo.tamu.edu/profile/KBowman">Kenneth Bowman</a>, <a href="http://atmo.tamu.edu/profile/CHomeyer">Cameron Homeyer</a> have continued providing computation of the transport of aerosols from the Fukushima plant. How do these computations compare with the <a href="http://gebweb.net/blogpost/2011/03/17/japan-radiation-map/">readings from the different government owned sensor networks</a> ?. In particular, how do these measurements compare with the two events listed in the <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/Maps.html">Texas A&M maps</a>.?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEc73v25ak0SU06dKV0N0HOrgTrZXjl8LAlpEQlvzyZsOql8M79TGUcFeVh658lTDvEUZssaJ-BEfadRUgbNVaR8Y4s0oYFnyDh_jH8_Ff3AG2VDNW9T5yBlcLJuB6YzfojRqfEfbfr_4Z/s1600/network.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEc73v25ak0SU06dKV0N0HOrgTrZXjl8LAlpEQlvzyZsOql8M79TGUcFeVh658lTDvEUZssaJ-BEfadRUgbNVaR8Y4s0oYFnyDh_jH8_Ff3AG2VDNW9T5yBlcLJuB6YzfojRqfEfbfr_4Z/s400/network.bmp" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The fire at Reactor 4 took place at 9:40 am March 15 JST (0:40 March 15 GMT) while the explosion of reactor 2 took place earlier at 6:10 a.m (21:10 March 14 GMT) that day (see <a href="http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78063.html">here for references</a>)</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEVAzs2FuIRxfKAmgbQChyphenhyphenqEeCrwiA0wWMZya_sEYKUZ5yqRJxXOQIoy87BP729bS2hvF1ctGNlvatJ6KOM0l0ULuyJIvygbIjaS8n-HgY21zD621QcDptjdy0ddNIIOHxRTeXWKRYt0v5/s1600/20110315T00Z_region1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEVAzs2FuIRxfKAmgbQChyphenhyphenqEeCrwiA0wWMZya_sEYKUZ5yqRJxXOQIoy87BP729bS2hvF1ctGNlvatJ6KOM0l0ULuyJIvygbIjaS8n-HgY21zD621QcDptjdy0ddNIIOHxRTeXWKRYt0v5/s640/20110315T00Z_region1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />
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<blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 20px;">Tuesday, March 15</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110315T00Z.html" style="color: black; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110315T00Z.html">2011-03-15 00Z</a></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">- analysis only (time of reported fire in reactor #4)</span></blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">According to the trajectories, four ticks later (12 hours later) it is over Ibakari prefecture. The first peak is at 6 AM JST on March 16th (21:00 GMT March 15th). While the red tracks goes south, the green and blue stays over that prefecture and are a therefore consistent with the peak recorded there at 6AM JST (21 hours later). But that measurement is also consistent with the explosion at reactor #2.(24 hours later) as can be seen in the following map.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXgRTJrG1GHkr-IIKjbAQmV0Qnh0Zr1W6qqCGmhrbOa9lYCtvIZ_JL2KbnoGV9lx8QGN2kNtKv_kMqb-8F5yX8DagTMNkMiE3HVyhl2XRaypiwbrMmQjppOvNXFwr5Js4eMEbesJEH6jem/s1600/20110314T21Z_region1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXgRTJrG1GHkr-IIKjbAQmV0Qnh0Zr1W6qqCGmhrbOa9lYCtvIZ_JL2KbnoGV9lx8QGN2kNtKv_kMqb-8F5yX8DagTMNkMiE3HVyhl2XRaypiwbrMmQjppOvNXFwr5Js4eMEbesJEH6jem/s640/20110314T21Z_region1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />
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<blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span class="style_1" style="font-family: Arial-BoldMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 700; line-height: 20px;">Monday, March 14</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: none; color: #584d4d; font-family: ArialMT, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> </span><span class="Bullet" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; font-size: 15px; text-decoration: none; text-transform: none;">•</span><span class="inline-block" style="display: inline-block; margin-bottom: 0.3em; vertical-align: baseline; width: 3px;"></span> <a href="http://csrp.tamu.edu/earthquake/earthquake/20110314T21Z.html" style="color: #584d4d; text-decoration: underline;" title="20110314T21Z.html">2011-03-14 21Z</a> - analysis only (time of reported explosion in reactor #2)</blockquote><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">So from a first reading of these maps, it does not look feasible to evaluate which of these two accidents is contributing to the measurements on the ground. Let us also not that the days after may 16, 17, the aerosols went over the pacific ocean.thereby reducing the dose to the land.</div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-71407600739648951722011-03-21T16:21:00.000-07:002011-03-21T16:21:55.348-07:00Fukushima: New plumes, SPEED measurements and Cs and I measurements in Tokyo.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO8VYg2wfM49IrCXepq4Fsp8mAaCqFoUAu7sP2a4xjpP4AYJzLUORSlinW-H7IJ6Yxy7a0Aa-hbpLZFipMgyQAJrZ2wUJXV7PZ_7jmSAr3DBAVHyyjacgse61kr1IDp2J20zhdH7OXAEK3/s1600/ongoingfukushima.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO8VYg2wfM49IrCXepq4Fsp8mAaCqFoUAu7sP2a4xjpP4AYJzLUORSlinW-H7IJ6Yxy7a0Aa-hbpLZFipMgyQAJrZ2wUJXV7PZ_7jmSAr3DBAVHyyjacgse61kr1IDp2J20zhdH7OXAEK3/s640/ongoingfukushima.JPG" width="440" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So far today, there have been reports of <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/03/situation-stabilizing-at-fukushima.html">produce contamination in he Ibakari prefecture</a> and the fact that <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fgw-japan-quake-reactors-smoke-20110322,0,2650127.story">two plumes formed </a>and were the reasons for the evacuation of workers at Fukushima. One should note that the detector at Fukushima are not being given in the SPEED network and so we get to see only readings further away from the plume source. As one can see from the report above, there have an increase in the dose rate on March 21 in the Ikabari prefecture. A similar trend can be found in the detection performed for Cesium 137, Cesium 134, iodine 132 and iodine 131 performed in Tokyo. From the data [1], one can categorize the following days with background level measurements: <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/keisoku-0317.pdf">March 17</a>, <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/keisoku-0318.pdf">March 18</a> <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/keisoku-0319.pdf">March 19</a>, <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/keisoku-0320.pdf">March 20</a> while <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/keisoku-0315.pdf">March 15</a>, <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/keisoku-0316.pdf">March 16</a>, <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/keisoku-0321.pdf">March 21</a> show much larger contributions. We should remain with an above average contribution for March 22. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The background levels are estimated by comparing the values to the <a href="http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/UCBAirSampling">background values at UCBerkeley</a>. Let us note that these measurements are extracted because each of these elements have a specific gamma signature. Geiger counters being considered for monitoring the plume do not detect the same thing. In particular, in Geiger counters, there is <a href="http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/1884">no discrimination in energy</a>.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHZEdLbhZjnsu7tHvisn6Ia-A6fFMpRZxrEl9xx0bgQDtqcQ2d-2rEL6BZZGULx_vR1Tc0c2ZFdMbta3MKk8li-V3rn0q0wDD1uOH91evbXsfmq6orTVj2IJXPD9vHySqn69y9hgNBKWYb/s1600/AirSample2_Spectra_full.preview.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHZEdLbhZjnsu7tHvisn6Ia-A6fFMpRZxrEl9xx0bgQDtqcQ2d-2rEL6BZZGULx_vR1Tc0c2ZFdMbta3MKk8li-V3rn0q0wDD1uOH91evbXsfmq6orTVj2IJXPD9vHySqn69y9hgNBKWYb/s320/AirSample2_Spectra_full.preview.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">If we take the measurements of the SPEED network for Hairando (south of Tokyo), the jump seen in the Cesium and Iodine measurement above do not show up on that network's measurement in the same area (Tokyo).</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdo1425NPX4-uFF-735eXEkV4LEsMc2UHbMTvWE0NUven66fISwEg7A7YilpUQCvFYr5TUu-kX31QwH9CscZhrPNaesAXkeS8M0R-X9xe6bpuEY7AgrK6EYhbUe9cSchODyBF6KetamkNx/s1600/hairando.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdo1425NPX4-uFF-735eXEkV4LEsMc2UHbMTvWE0NUven66fISwEg7A7YilpUQCvFYr5TUu-kX31QwH9CscZhrPNaesAXkeS8M0R-X9xe6bpuEY7AgrK6EYhbUe9cSchODyBF6KetamkNx/s400/hairando.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br />
This maybe an issue of wind patterns. One can also regret that while there are a few models looking into the plume displacement over the whole globe, there seems to be scant simulation focused only on Japan.<br />
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[1] Source: <a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/measurement.html">Department of Health and Welfare, Tokyo</a>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-51163595025647072942011-03-21T02:47:00.000-07:002011-03-21T02:52:31.453-07:00Fukushima: A radiation dose chartRandal Munroe, famous for being the author or XKCD, has published with the help of some other people a chart giving a glimpse of the meaning of radiation levels. As he states himself, this chart is not meant to be a scientific reference, but it still proves very helpful in putting in perspective a given radiation level.<br /><br />Sources used are credited on the page.<br /><br /><a href="http://xkcd.com/radiation/">http://xkcd.com/radiation/<br /></a>Zaviehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05764109477824249096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-85847101542308371592011-03-20T16:44:00.000-07:002011-03-20T16:45:44.879-07:00Fukushima: Japanese Radiation Monitoring Data Google Maps Mashup, Fukushima source term<div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.sendung.de/">Marian Steinbach</a> decided to scrape the radiation monitoring data from the <a href="http://www.bousai.ne.jp/eng/index.html">Japanese Radiation Monitoring Network (SPEED)</a> we <a href="http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/2011/03/fukushima-japanese-disaster-prevention.html">featured earlier here</a>, so that people would be able to use these data for potential mash-ups. ( see <a href="http://www.sendung.de/2011-03-19/update-on-radiation-data-japan/">An Update on Radiation Data from Japan</a> ). Then, <a href="http://www.gebweb.net/">Geir Engdahl</a> put this data in a google maps. The data is refreshed every ten minutes.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEias8B5rA_A_NML3Qx74sdze2v-M4LT2NreqbuIouCCHZa9A6o0cn1ONaZWal2jtHUgYqK9W1tm_5JVWf1VYf-yVmMw24Kiguy1G3S9Z-jdtt1gdRfxXvJncE5R_SeN-9IhVohWv_Ic3SPW/s1600/speed-google-maps-mashup.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEias8B5rA_A_NML3Qx74sdze2v-M4LT2NreqbuIouCCHZa9A6o0cn1ONaZWal2jtHUgYqK9W1tm_5JVWf1VYf-yVmMw24Kiguy1G3S9Z-jdtt1gdRfxXvJncE5R_SeN-9IhVohWv_Ic3SPW/s640/speed-google-maps-mashup.JPG" width="440" /></a></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/eronvillarreal">Eron Villarreal</a> has put this data in a <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/JapanRadiationLevels/JapanRadiationLevelsDashboard">data dashboard</a> using Tableau Software.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhVpFrQ_PCkvH8NftvRyOofeAMh79agPRGcdrw0ILljJD59m_cGGFo79xUsE2H7QTB1MKoAMPlUt6dT6EvUIFMax6tszgwlOcm9D4unaa3nAkFi9VWm5MIn4Ocd90TVtqJx0KXGhVL_iy8/s1600/tableau-mashup.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhVpFrQ_PCkvH8NftvRyOofeAMh79agPRGcdrw0ILljJD59m_cGGFo79xUsE2H7QTB1MKoAMPlUt6dT6EvUIFMax6tszgwlOcm9D4unaa3nAkFi9VWm5MIn4Ocd90TVtqJx0KXGhVL_iy8/s640/tableau-mashup.JPG" width="440" /></a></div><br />
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<div style="text-align: justify;">In particular south of Fukushima, near the town of Hitachinaka, we can see:</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzqXpgY-qrBwFFLMbuJHg4_CGQlpYwKl-tG6LkUCM3p27su0IzpZH5p-OOaUnpGa8DNKK6YcJsNS9ET1ewrNs1VDS9tDRRz6FGrpRW7DM1BFxiqI1kaogUi9gvUL7U-wKFaUC12yPU4TiJ/s1600/hitachinaka-march21-815am.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzqXpgY-qrBwFFLMbuJHg4_CGQlpYwKl-tG6LkUCM3p27su0IzpZH5p-OOaUnpGa8DNKK6YcJsNS9ET1ewrNs1VDS9tDRRz6FGrpRW7DM1BFxiqI1kaogUi9gvUL7U-wKFaUC12yPU4TiJ/s640/hitachinaka-march21-815am.JPG" width="440" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here the dose is in nanoGray/hr. 3000 nGy/hr is equivalent to 3 microSv/hr given a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert">weighting factor of 1</a>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">It would be great if any <a href="http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/search/label/simulation">simulations performed by any of the outfits we have mentioned earlier</a> were to provide their data in a format that can fit a Google Maps mashup format (if you are one of these researchers but don't know how to go about this please contact us).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">In other news, Cheryl Rofer <a href="http://phronesisaical.blogspot.com/2011/03/latest-on-fukushima-and-some-great-web.html#links">seems to point to a drastic reduction of effluent from the Fukushima plant as cooling is being restored to most reactors and pools</a>. </div>Igorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17474880327699002140noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-45176003998879640482011-03-20T00:57:00.000-07:002011-03-20T01:19:45.838-07:00Fukushima: Measured amount of iodine and cesium in atmosphere in Setagaya ku, Tokyo | 東京都世田谷区内で計測された大気中のヨウ素及びセシウム素The following page reports on a day to day basis levels of iodine 131, iodine 132, cesium 134 and cesium 137 as measured in the atmosphere in Setagaya ku, in Tokyo. The documents are in Japanese, but spreadsheets should be understandable.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/measurement.html">http://www.sangyo-rodo.metro.tokyo.jp/whats-new/measurement.html</a><br /><br /><iframe width="425" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://maps.google.fr/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=fr&msa=0&msid=210898383785586520377.00049ec135b71c4bf92cd&ll=36.474277,140.323026&spn=1.893042,1.42097&iwloc=00049ee59ac28bdbd0193&output=embed"></iframe><br /><small>Afficher <a href="http://maps.google.fr/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=fr&msa=0&msid=210898383785586520377.00049ec135b71c4bf92cd&ll=36.474277,140.323026&spn=1.893042,1.42097&iwloc=00049ee59ac28bdbd0193&source=embed" style="color:#0000FF;text-align:left">Fukushima Plume (Sensors and Measurements)</a> sur une carte plus grande</small>Zaviehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05764109477824249096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7754053792107357418.post-71763123083567257412011-03-19T22:18:00.000-07:002011-03-19T22:23:37.238-07:00Fukushima: Status of the Fukushima 1 power plant (as of March 18th, 22h00)A spreadsheet of the status of the Fukushima 1 power plant as of March 18, 22h00, has been published by JAIF (Japanese Atomic Industrial Forum).<br /><br /><a href="http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/aij/110318FukushimaEventStatus-14">http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/aij/110318FukushimaEventStatus-14</a>Zaviehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05764109477824249096noreply@blogger.com0