Friday, March 25, 2011

Fukushima: Texas A&M Forecasts Sat March 25, A Challenge ?, Other assessments and radiation monitoring networks

The Texas A&M forecasts are in for tomorrow:
Saturday, March 26
 2011-03-26 12Z - forecast only
 2011-03-26 06Z - forecast only
 2011-03-26 00Z - forecast only

If the trend is correct, the plume is likely to be conveyed away from Japanese land for tomorrow. It also shows the plume aiming for the Philippines. If the plume is the same as it has been for the past week as it spread to the US, it will not yield appreciable dose. Ken Bowman, the initiator of the Texas A&M simulations let me know that I should not use the term aerosol simulation for his simulations "as they have no aerosol physics in them, just passive advection by the winds.". Thanks Ken for the correction.

I am wondering if we should not have some type of challenge that would ask people to show side by side  how simulations and sensor networks measurements could be compared. 

The DOE site about the situation in Japan is here. While they have provided data on the ground from their assessment team, I have not seen any result from plume simulations from their center at Livermore. Of interest is the mention in USA Today of an assessment performed by some IAEA/Japan team around Fukushima. I am not sure I have seen these results on the web.

In the meantime, I have come across two country-wide maps of interest for generic radiation sensor network monitoring who are seemingly not affected by the Fukushima plume.

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