Thursday, March 24, 2011

Fukushima: Timelines, the Fog of Data, Comparing the DOE data and Texas A&M's simulations, Forecasts

The Neutroneconomy blog has an update on Dose Readings in Japan.and provides some analysis of the plumes and their detection. Also via the Neutroneconomy blogR.C Hoetzlein provides a very nice timeline.
There is another one on the NYT.

Having a good timeline should allow us to make a better comparison with the Texas A&M simulations and readings on the ground. To the untrained eye it looks like there is only one set of sensors. However, the fog of data is fed from are several sensor networks. There are:
Beside the atmospheric ground measurements, there are also tap water measurements (see graphs).

We have updated a google maps featuring the MEXT data and some other data we  mentioned in the blog before:

View Fukushima Plume (Sensors and Measurements) in a larger map

The Radiation data from the SPEED! network can also be found on this map.

With regards to the source term, the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, Cheryl Rofer  has a take on the white smoke coming out of the plant:
The puffs of smoke that have caused temporary evacuations of the control rooms have not been accompanied by increases in radiation. A gray or black color could indicate a fire, while white “smoke” is more likely steam.

From the FEPC reports, the spent fuel pools at Units 2, 5, and 6 are at acceptable temperatures. Water is being added to the pools at Units 3 and 4, but no temperature is given. The reactor cores in Units 1, 2, and 3 remain partially uncovered by water, but the fact that their containment is holding pressure suggests that there are no large breaches. 
Marian Steinbach has started putting the readings she obtained from the SPEED! network into a small video. This is outstanding. If we could include all the data from all the sensor networks and have a similar video from the plumes, I am sure we could begin to infer something

Here is the SPEEDI Radiation Data Animation - Draft (Mar 20, 00:00 to Mar 23, 15:20 UTC)

As I was looking at the trajectory computations by the fine folks at Texas A&M and the aerial assessment provided by DOE yesterday, I am in need of an explanation: Namely, if you look at the DOE measurements, there is red corridor going up on the left of Fukushima Dai-ichi:

yet when one check the Texas A&M simulations, only a period of potentially six hours provided this region to the exposure to the plume.namely:

The three days worth of simulation by Texas A&M and covered by the DOE survey are:
Saturday, March 19
 2011-03-19 18Z - analysis + forecast
 2011-03-19 12Z - analysis + forecast
 2011-03-19 06Z - analysis + forecast
 2011-03-19 00Z - analysis + forecast
Friday, March 18
 2011-03-18 18Z - analysis + forecast
 2011-03-18 12Z - analysis + forecast
 2011-03-18 06Z - analysis + forecast
 2011-03-18 00Z - analysis only
Thursday, March 17
 2011-03-17 18Z - analysis only
 2011-03-17 12Z - analysis only
 2011-03-17 06Z - analysis only
 2011-03-17 00Z - analysis only

Finally, here are the new Texas A&M forecast for today and tomorrow (times are in GMT).

Friday, March 25
 2011-03-25 12Z - forecast only
 2011-03-25 06Z - forecast only
 2011-03-25 00Z - forecast only
Thursday, March 24
 2011-03-24 18Z - forecast only
 2011-03-24 12Z - forecast only
 2011-03-24 06Z - forecast only
 2011-03-24 00Z - forecast only

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